In a pre-debate piece at the Huffington Post, I decided to go out on a limb and make some actual Presidential debate predictions regarding what the candidates will do during tonight’s final exchange.
Now I suppose it’s possible that Romney and Obama will go off script and jump right into a Lincoln-Douglas style debate where they respectfully acknowledge each other’s opinions and respond with arguments fueled primary by the Principle of Charity (in which case, all of my predictions will be out the window).
But assuming they take advantage of the format of the debate, and likely inability of the moderator to enforce much discipline, I think it’s safe to assume that nothing much will be said tonight that doesn’t already exist on index cards one or the other candidate is currently practicing from.
And since this is a foreign policy debate, we should expect not just tropes but other sorts of “stand-ins” for positions on issues that would take too long to describe (much less discuss seriously) within the limited format of a televised debate.
Some stand-ins to look out for:
- “Leading from behind” – As mentioned in the HuffPo piece, this is a phrase originally used by an anonymous White House official which could be charitably translated as “pulling strings behind the scenes,” but has instead taken on a life of its own as a trope for overall lack of Presidential leadership in international affairs
- “Trillion dollar wars” (or some similar term) designed to characterize military action in Afghanistan and Iraq over the last decade primarily in terms of economic cost (which allows the user of this term to avoid having to argue for or against them based on complex geopolitical realities)
- “Apology Tour” – A trope used to create the image of President Obama traveling the globe trying to win over other nation’s leaders (including dictators) by agreeing with them about the awful things America has done in the past. (Expect similar images such as “bowing before dictators” to also make an appearance tonight.)
- “Politics ends at the shore” – This is the phrase the political party in power traditionally uses to imply that any criticism of the administration’s foreign policy puts the country’s world standing at risk. (A variation on this theme is to imply that an opponent’s comments are actually putting American lives in jeopardy.)
Given that both criticism of a sitting President’s foreign policy and this technique to shut it down are used every four years (with only the roles of who does what changing, depending on who’s in the White House), expect to see accusations regarding who is breaking (or broke) this principle come up with regard to nearly every sensitive foreign question.
As for who I’m going to predict (i.e., “guess”) wins the debate, I would expect that another index-card set of performances (like the one we saw during the second debate) will end up being judged a draw since, this time around, expectations for each candidate are even (as opposed to the first debate where big things were expected of Obama, and the second debate where just doing better than he did previously would be judged a success).
As a sitting President with foreign policy decisions under his belt, Obama is clearly at a disadvantage vis-a-vis Romney who does not have to defend his own foreign policy record (although the President will try to assign him the historic Republican one). That being the case, the President is even more likely to play it safe, avoid errors and try to push discussion of sensitive issues out of bounds.
For his part, if Romney continues his reliance on “gotchas” (thinking that foreign policy gives him endless material to work with), this too will likely just lead to a draw. Partly this is because such a “gotcha strategy” is exactly what the Obama team is likely to be expecting. But largely because such sound bites will not provide the Republican the ethos he needs to be considered the more reliable, trusted (and thus preferable) candidate.
Finally, if anyone is looking for a drinking game tonight, I suggest it involve taking a shot every time you hear the word “failed.”
Important note: That last line was simply a cheap gag and does not condone the drinking of alcoholic beverages or drinking to excess in any way.
Cheers!
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